2:00PM Water Cooler 8/18/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Music of the Day

Bobolink, 450 Fort Warwick Passage,Pocahontas, West Virginia, United States.

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Search for the Helpers

MWB writes:

HRH and I drove to Prospect, NC to view Shangri-La, a folks artwork village labor of affection fabricated of native white rock blasted by a retired tobacco farmer. He and his spouse had been childless and he constructed this for kids. Typically I believe we’re not so dangerous.

Shangri-La village:

Good marigolds, too!

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Two households, each alike in dignity,
In truthful Verona, the place we lay our scene,
From historical grudge break to new mutiny,
The place civil blood makes civil fingers unclean.
–William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Shakespeare says the 2 households are “alike” in dignity, however he doesn’t say how a lot dignity they really have. If Verona’s households are like our events, the reply is “not a lot.”

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“The Sweep and Drive of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely advocate this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the legislation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been quite lots of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Battle. To me, that is parallel to at least one lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are quite lots of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by his position within the revolt that befell on January 6, 2021.

Taking “revolt” as learn (I must do extra studying), right here is one other aggregation on Part Three.

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“This Week Contained in the Huge Tent” [Brian Beutler, The Big Tent]. “Lower than every week after the revolt, the appellate advocate Deepak Gupta and I printed an early article within the New York Instances on the promise of the 14th Modification possibility and urged just a few treatments—an act of Congress, or intelligent litigation, or a mixture of the 2.” Sure, the occasions of January 2 had been immediately framed as an “revolt.” Extra: “In January of 2021, earlier than Trump had confronted his second impeachment, these choices weren’t but ripe. Two-and-a half-years later, Trump is the runaway favourite to win the GOP presidential nomination for the third time, one in every of his best-polling challengers, former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, has demonstrated a uncommon willingness amongst Republicans to confront Trump over his corruption and lawlessness; he and plenty of different main Republicans have publicly dedicated themselves to the view that Trump is uniquely positioned amongst candidates to lose the 2024 election, . The difficulty is immediately very ripe, and plucking it before later would serve the pursuits of all Individuals, together with the previous president, whose very freedom could also be at stake.” • Want to search out the calendar on this…. 

“The Structure bars Trump from holding public workplace ever once more” [Donald K. Sherman, The Hill]. Final September, three New Mexico residents represented by my group, Residents for Duty and Ethics in Washington, gained the primary case in additional than 150 years eradicating an elected official from workplace based mostly on participation in an revolt. The courtroom dominated that then-New Mexico County Commissioner Couy Griffin had violated Part Three of the 14th Modification by recruiting males for battle to affix Trump’s “”wild”” effort to overturn the election Jan. 6, normalized violence and breached police limitations as a part of the weaponized mob that allowed others to overwhelm legislation enforcement and storm the Capitol. Griffin’s elimination marked the primary case on the federal or state stage concluding that what occurred Jan. 6 was an revolt. In Griffin’s case, the courtroom discovered that disqualifying officers beneath Part Three of the 14th Modification doesn’t battle with the First Modification proper to protest. It additionally rebuffed makes an attempt by Griffin to conflate Jan. 6 with Black Lives Matter protests… .” • Appparently, this explicit NGO has been laboring within the winery for a while. See additionally 2023’s “DisqualifIed: The Case for Donald Trump’s Disqualification beneath the Fourteenth Modification” (PDF).

Biden Administration

“Biden’s fall Covid vaccine rollout for the uninsured gained’t embody pharmacies at first” [Politico]. “The Biden administration’s effort to offer free Covid-19 vaccines to the uninsured is not going to begin at retail pharmacies till mid-October, weeks after the federal government plans to make an up to date model of the shot accessible to the broader public. The hole in timing, which comes as Covid hospitalizations have ticked up in current weeks, signifies that tens of millions of Individuals with out well being protection won’t be able to instantly get a no-cost vaccine at common locations like CVS and Walgreens, at the same time as it is going to be broadly accessible for many who have insurance coverage.” • Stochastic eugenics, good job. See Rule #2.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

“Donald Trump calls off press convention the place he stated he would share report on Georgia election fraud claims” [Politico]. “Former President Donald Trump will now not maintain a information convention nor launch a supposed in depth report that he beforehand stated would clear him and his allies of wrongdoing within the wake of his newest indictment by a Georgia grand jury, he stated on Thursday. ‘Relatively than releasing the Report on the Rigged & Stolen Georgia 2020 Presidential Election on Monday, my attorneys would favor placing this, I imagine, Irrefutable & Overwhelming proof of Election Fraud & Irregularities in formal Authorized Filings as we combat to dismiss this disgraceful Indictment by a publicity & marketing campaign finance searching for D.A., who sadly presides over a file breaking Homicide & Violent Crime space, Atlanta. Due to this fact, the Information Convention is now not mandatory!’ Trump wrote in a Reality Social submit on Thursday night.” • Hmm. This suggests that Trump’s attorneys had been capable of stuff him again into his field. There’s a primary time for the whole lot! (And, if that’s the case, Trump has the attorneys he wants.)

“Trump requests April 2026 begin for election fraud trial” [Axios]. “Attorneys for former President Trump requested an April 2026 begin date for the trial on his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, in accordance with a Thursday courtroom submitting. Why it issues: The request within the case introduced by particular counsel Jack Smith comes because the Republican presidential major front-runner faces a collision course between his mounting courtroom circumstances and his 2024 marketing campaign.”

“Individuals are divided alongside get together strains over Trump’s actions in election circumstances, AP-NORC ballot exhibits” [Associated Press]. “The ballot from The Related Press-NORC Middle for Public Affairs Analysis, which was performed earlier than Monday’s fees within the Georgia case, additionally exhibits that about half of Individuals — 53% — approve of the Justice Division indicting Trump over his efforts to stay in workplace after shedding the 2020 election. The ballot finds 85% of Democrats approve of the legal fees introduced Aug. 2 by Particular Counsel Jack Smith, in contrast with 47% of independents and simply 16% of Republicans. Total, 3 in 10 Individuals disapprove, together with about two-thirds of Republicans.”

“Election employees who face frequent harassment see accountability within the newest Georgia fees” [Associated Press]. “Tonya Wichman has overseen elections in a rural Ohio county for eight years and hasn’t skilled any vital issues with voting or counting the ballots. However that doesn’t imply no huge worries in any respect. What does concern her is the frequent harassment, intimidation and even bodily threats she and her workers have been receiving because the 2020 election. It acquired so dangerous forward of the 2022 midterms that her workers acquired police safety when leaving or coming to the workplace…. Election employee intimidation is one key aspect of the conspiracy alleged within the Georgia case. Tuesday’s indictment alleges that a number of of the defendants falsely accused Fulton County election employee Ruby Freeman of committing election crimes and says some defendants traveled from out of state to harass and intimidate her.”

“Trump’s Toast, Of us” [CATO Institute]. The Georgia indictment is a bombshell—the equal of a Texas Maintain’em poker participant shoving their complete stack of chips into the center of the desk and declaring, “”All in.”” In sum, the Georgia indictment alleges that Trump orchestrated a sprawling legal conspiracy (or “”enterprise,”” within the language of the indictment and Georgia’s state RICO statute) involving greater than 20 named and unnamed co‐​conspirators ranging throughout half‐​a‐​dozen states for the aim of unlawfully altering the results of the November 2020 presidential election. There’s nothing delicate or nuanced about this indictment—in impact, it accuses Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, John Eastman, Jeffrey Clark, Sidney Powell, and a dozen others of staging an unsuccessful coup. If the case goes to trial, which appears probably, the jury will both imagine that characterization or they won’t. I believe they may, for 3 causes. 1. Trump’s disdain for fact. America has seen its fair proportion of mendacity politicians, however Donald Trump is in a category of his personal…. 2. Trump’s disdain for course of. Once more, Donald Trump doesn’t see the world the best way regular individuals do. As a substitute of establishments to be revered and guidelines to be adopted, he sees marks to be gulled and methods to be gamed—emphatically together with elections and trials.” • And that is the attention-grabbing argument:

3. Complexity. The third motive Trump will likely be convicted in a number of of the circumstances in opposition to him is that this: complexity. Litigation is an advanced course of that includes an typically thoughts‐​numbing interaction of procedural guidelines, substantive legal guidelines, courtroom filings, paperwork, discovery, truth witnesses, knowledgeable witness, and a relentless procession of unexpected twists and turns that evoke the maxim that no plan survives contact with the enemy. And that complexity multiplies geometrically with the variety of associated proceedings happening on the similar time, which signifies that Trump’s authorized groups will discover it practically inconceivable to coordinate throughout all 4 of the continuing prosecutions in New York, Florida, DC, and now Georgia. However it’s even worse than that. Litigation complexity is tough sufficient to handle with a consumer who performs it straight, each with the courtroom and with their very own counsel. However Trump doesn’t play it straight—he by no means has, and it seems he’s constitutionally incapable of doing so. So he’ll lie: in courtroom, in public, on social media and—fatally—to his personal attorneys. Merely put, Trump’s protection groups won’t be able to maintain observe of all of the completely different positions their consumer has taken (or directed his numerous attorneys to absorb completely different proceedings), and finally issues will come utterly unraveled.

Hubris, meet nemesis?

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“Then-VP Joe Biden used PSEUDONYM ‘Robert L. Peters’ in emails to Hunter about Ukraine enterprise: GOP ramps up Biden household corruption probe and calls for Nationwide Archives hand over data” [Daily Mail]. “Republicans are searching for data revealing Joe Biden’s use of pseudonyms to debate his actions associated to Ukraine together with his son Hunter throughout his time as vice chairman. They particularly need an un-redacted doc that signifies that then-Vice President Biden took a name with the president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, on Could 27, 2016. Republicans say the doc was emailed to ‘Robert L. Peters’ which is ‘a pseudonym’ the Home Oversight Committee has ‘recognized as then Vice-President Biden,’ a letter obtained by DailyMail.com states.” • The file request:

“Column: An unlikely resolution to the issues with Harris and Feinstein” [Los Angeles Times]. “Biden apparently chosen Harris largely due to an anticipated consolation stage based mostly on her shut working relationship together with his late son, Beau, once they had been each state attorneys normal.” • Ah. Because the apple doesn’t fall removed from the tree, maybe Beau noticed in Harris what Willie Brown noticed in Harris.

“Trump’s (Nonetheless) the One” [John Nichols, The New Republic]. “Even permitting for the unlikely risk of jury verdicts and jail sentences earlier than subsequent summer time, the Republican Nationwide Conference is shaping up as one huge Trump rally. If something, Trump’s troubles with the legislation have solidified his grip on a Republican Social gathering that he’s remade in his personal picture—full with a persecution advanced that sees legal complaints as proof that the ‘deep state’ is ‘weaponized’ in opposition to ‘the best of all presidents.’” Will Christopher Steele please choose up the white courtesy cellphone? Extra: “Biden and his allies should lead with attention-grabbing plans to make well being care a proper, elevate wages, assure abortion rights, minimize schooling prices, and save the planet—and to tax the wealthy to pay for a strengthened social security web. Sadly, that’s not the president’s pure inclination. So he wants a push. The excellent news is that the State Democratic Social gathering Progressives Community and a coalition of teams akin to Progressive Democrats of America have begun organizing to elect progressive delegates and to jot down a visionary platform for the 2024 Democratic Nationwide Conference.” • Oh, come on.

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“DeSantis debate memo urges him to ‘hammer’ Ramaswamy and defend Trump” [Axios]. “[The memo] was posted to the web site of Axiom Methods, which works for the DeSantis-aligned By no means Again Down tremendous PAC, “[It] lists 4 ‘overarching targets’ for DeSantis throughout the debate. • Assault President Biden and the media • ‘Hammer’ Vivek Ramaswamy, with ‘Faux Vivek’ urged as a nickname • Share his personal ‘constructive imaginative and prescient’ • Defend former President Trump.” • Hilariously, tremendous PACs aren’t allowed to co-ordinate with campaigns, so it seems to be like Axiom leaked the memo as an alternative. I agree Ramaswamy is an issue for DeSantis, however imitate Trump by inventing an insulting nickname? Voters need the true Trump, not an imitation. Anyhow, if DeSantis desires to go the “Faux Vivek” route, he’d higher placed on his elevator sneakers, as a result of in any other case he’ll look dumb.

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Asking for my vote:

And my 600 bucks.

“Hawaii’s Damaged Coronary heart” [Marianne Williamson, Transform]. “Hawaii is floor zero for a type of financial imperialism. Hawaii didn’t come begging to turn into a state within the Union; she was made a US protectorate through a coup staged in opposition to her. What number of Individuals have sought refuge and therapeutic within the enchanted land of Hawaii, solely later to find the historic shadows that lay beneath. Hawaii is a deeply sacred land – some say it’s the guts middle of the planet – and her coronary heart has been wounded by the soulless financial overreach of everybody from Dole to Monsanto. In the present day, after the biggest wildfire recorded within the U.S. within the final 100 years utterly destroyed the city of Lahaina on the Western shores of Maui, pictures had been fired from the bow of the brand new colonialism – over gentrification. Actual property builders swooped in exactly 24 hours after the fireplace to supply individuals who have misplaced the whole lot – who’re being given a mere $700 stipend per household plus help with filling out FEMA types (from Katrina to East Palestine and now to Lahaina, it’s clear our emergency catastrophe response methods are themselves a catastrophe) – to supply them sufficient to outlive within the quick time period, however most likely too little to ever return to the place they lived earlier than.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“An Insurance coverage Coverage for Democrats” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “States of Change simulations present that, all else equal, a powerful white working class surge in 2024 would ship the election to the GOP. Even a small one may probably do the trick. In an all-else-equal context, I estimate only a one-point enhance in Republican help among the many white working class and a concomitant one-point lower in Democratic help (for a 2-point margin swing) would ship Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (and the election) to the Republicans. Make it a 2-point enhance in GOP help and you’ll throw in Pennsylvania too. So an insurance coverage coverage to forestall such a swing is so as. The issue: these are very sad voters.” Says the marketing consultant whose apply did greater than every other to allow Democrats to desert them. Be that as it might, Teixeria is a professional: “While you take a look at the precise inhabitants of voters and the way racial resentment was distributed in 2016, as Grimmer and Marble did, it seems that the racial resentment clarification merely doesn’t match what actually occurred when it comes to voter shifts. A rigorous accounting of vote shifts towards Trump exhibits as an alternative that they had been primarily amongst whites, particularly low schooling whites, with reasonable views on race and immigration, not whites with excessive ranges of racial resentment. In truth, Trump truly netted fewer votes amongst whites with excessive ranges of racial resentment than Mitt Romney did in 2012… A lot for the racial resentment clarification of Trump’s victory. Not solely is racial resentment a misnamed variable that doesn’t imply what individuals suppose it means, it actually can not account for the precise shifts that occurred within the 2016 election…. Such understanding was nowhere to be discovered, nevertheless, in Democratic ranks. The racism-and-xenophobia interpretation shortly turned dominant, partly as a result of it was in some ways merely a continuation of the strategy Clinton had taken throughout her marketing campaign and that almost all Democrats accepted. Certainly, it turned so dominant that merely to query the interpretation reliably opened the questioner to accusations that she or he didn’t take the issue of racism severely sufficient. We’re nonetheless dwelling in that world…. Democrats desperately want that insurance coverage coverage for 2024 and eliminating these attitudes towards 40 p.c of the citizens (way more in key states!) ought to be a part of it. Consider it as a down cost on the ‘de-Brahminization‘ of the Democratic Social gathering.” • I believe the Democrats are about as prone to take this well-meant recommendation as MSNBC is probably going to offer Thomas Frank his personal present.

“Circulation of former Cuomo aide’s deposition units off firestorm” [Syracuse.com (Bob)]. ” Aides to former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo have been circulating a transcript of a deposition final month of Ana Liss-Jackson, who was one in every of 11 girls listed in a searing 2021 state legal professional normal’s report that accused the previous governor of participating in a sample of sexual harassment and inappropriate office conduct…. Liss-Jackson famous that she had by no means accused Cuomo of sexual harassment however that she later believed his conduct, which included calling her ‘sweetheart,’ kissing her hand, touching her again and asking about her boyfriend, had been improper. ‘I don’t imagine that the governor, to be clear, sexually harassed me,’ Liss-Jackson stated final month. ‘It was on the heels of the ‘MeToo’ motion and there was a cultural shift round what was, and was not — what’s and what’s not — applicable conduct within the office.’ Liss-Jackson stated her intention in talking to reporters two years in the past was to assist buttress the extra critical allegations being leveled in opposition to Cuomo by different girls. However she additionally implied that the best way her story was reported within the Wall Avenue Journal and Gothamist had not been what she hoped to convey. She didn’t say these tales had been inaccurate, solely that they ‘didn’t absolutely, precisely characterize what I used to be making an attempt to get throughout’ and that in some information stories her feedback had been ‘taken out of context.’” • Sure, what introduced Cuomo down was #MeToo — keep in mind them? — and never slaughtering hundreds of elders in nursing properties. It’s a humorous previous world.

“Sen. Dianne Feinstein claims ‘monetary elder abuse’ in lawsuit over husband’s property” [NBC]. “Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., is suing the trustees of a fund arrange by her late husband, accusing them of committing ‘monetary elder abuse’ by refusing to pay the tens of millions of {dollars} she’s due. The swimsuit was filed in San Francisco Superior Courtroom final week by Feinstein’s daughter, Katherine Feinstein, who was given ‘a restricted sturdy energy of legal professional’ over her mom’s affairs in July.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Contained in the marketing campaign to cancel intercourse ed” [Popular Information] • Is there proof that we’re any higher at educating intercourse than we’re at educating math, science, and studying and writing?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep protected on the market!

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Search for the Helpers

“UConn Highway Journey to EPA Launches DIY Air Filter Excessive-Tech Biochamber Testing” [UConn Today (TPH)]. “The nationwide motion urging using the cheap, build-it-yourself “”Corsi-Rosenthal”” field air purifiers to simply take away unhealthy air particles from indoor neighborhood settings like lecture rooms and houses has been rising from the College of Connecticut to throughout the nation – and now all the best way to the U.S. Environmental Safety Company’s (EPA)  Homeland Safety Division Laboratory for high-tech, superior biochamber analysis testing of this machine…. UConn is bringing for testing a Corsi-Rosenthal field air filter constructed particularly for the EPA evaluation by a category of fifth graders at Commodore MacDonough STEM Academy in Middletown. It was adorned in June with Delight rainbows and the varsity’s owl mascot. One of many fifth graders, Eniola Shokunbi, who desires to be the primary feminine African American president of the US when she grows up, wrote and mailed Creed a letter inviting UConn to her public college, which was constructed virtually a century in the past. The scholar wished to have UConn’s assist to construct these air filters to enhance her college’s indoor air high quality, cut back her fellow college students’ threat of sickness, and in addition run her personal science experiment testing the effectiveness of the gadgets throughout lecture rooms by monitoring sick absences. My class and I had been amazed by your invention, and we wished to see if we may attempt to make one ourselves,’ wrote the nine-year-old in her letter. ‘My college was inbuilt 1925, and it may use some enchancment. Your invention may assist us with that. Would you be prepared to share the plans of the Corsi-Rosenthal?’” • Hmmm…. 

Maskstravaganza

Superbly carried out:

Censorship and Propaganda

“No, you don’t have the ‘August flu.’ It’s most likely COVID” [Insider]. “Monitoring wastewater provides researchers a reasonably good thought of whether or not COVID-19 or the flu is circulating in a neighborhood. Proper now, the coronavirus remains to be being detected throughout practically all the testing websites in the US sampled by Sanford and Emory College-backed initiative WastewaterSCAN. Samples of the virus have been progressively on the rise because the starting of the summer time, probably because of the brand new ‘Eris’ coronavirus variant. Knowledge from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) additionally exhibits that hospitalizations from COVID-19 are up 12.5% up to now week, and deaths are up 10%. Then again, the flu has been virtually nonexistent throughout testing websites because the starting of June.”

“The psychology behind individuals performing like the whole lot is regular once more” [Health Solutions Group Australia]. “With the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, have you ever seen individuals performing like the whole lot has gone utterly again to ‘regular’? Or do you your self get the sensation that COVID-19 is over? Regardless of realizing that it’s positively removed from over, many people have began to behave like there is no such thing as a longer a menace. Strolling down the road now, you would possibly see far more individuals than earlier than and plenty of of them not social distancing. Everyone knows the pandemic isn’t over, so why will we act and really feel this manner? One a part of the reply to this may very well be that we’re experiencing what psychologists consult with as ‘groupthink’. To place it merely, groupthink is the place we find yourself performing like others with out actually enthusiastic about whether or not we agree with what they’re doing or pondering. We do that as a result of we wish to ‘slot in’ with the bulk and we take a look at how others are behaving for clues on how we must always behave. Analysis has proven that it’s fairly highly effective stuff.  One well-known collection of research in psychology often known as the Asch conformity experiments, put an individual in a room with seven different individuals (who had been all a part of the examine). The particular person being examined thought that they had been all there to finish a imaginative and prescient check, however actually it was to see if that one particular person would change their solutions based mostly on what the group stated. They had been proven a line after which proven 3 different comparability strains and so they needed to choose which one matched the size of the primary and say it out loud. The factor is, even when it was completely apparent that the remainder of the group had been mistaken, about 75% of individuals nonetheless gave the mistaken reply a minimum of as soon as, simply because it’s what everybody else was saying.” • I believe “groupthink” is less complicated than doable (what’s a “group?”). However “Asch conformity experiments” is one thing to file away.

Science Is Popping

“Shock COVID discovery helps clarify how coronaviruses soar species” [Phys.org]. “Surprising new insights into how COVID-19 infects cells could assist clarify why coronaviruses are so good at leaping from species to species and can assist scientists higher predict how COVID-19 will evolve. All through the pandemic, there was a lot dialogue of how COVID-19 infiltrates cells by hijacking a protein known as ACE2 discovered on human cells. However the brand new analysis from the Faculty of Medication reveals that ACE2 isn’t required for an infection. As a substitute, the virus has different means it could possibly use to contaminate cells…. ‘The virus that causes COVID-19 makes use of ACE2 because the entrance door to contaminate cells, however we’ve discovered that if the entrance door is blocked, it could possibly additionally use the again door or the home windows,’ stated researcher Peter Kasson, MD, Ph.D., of UVA’s Departments of Molecular Physiology and Biomedical Engineering. ‘This implies the virus can maintain spreading because it infects a brand new species till it adapts to make use of a specific species’ entrance door. So we’ve got to be careful for brand spanking new viruses doing the identical factor to contaminate us.’…. 

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with persona modifications therefrom.

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Case Knowledge

From BioBot wastewater information, August 17:

Lambert right here: Pleased reminiscences of tape-watching days! Closing in on a Trump-era surge stage; Biden’s, after all, are greater. It will likely be attention-grabbing to see what occurs when faculties open up. I want to congratulate the Biden administration and the general public well being institution, the CDC particularly, for this monumental and unprecedented achievement. And a tip of the ol’ Water Cooler hat to the Nice Barrington goons, whose insurance policies have been adopted so assiduously! A curious truth: All of Biden’s peaks are greater than Trump’s peaks. Exhibits you what public well being can do when it’s firing on all eight cylinders! Musical interlude. NOTE I’m not completely happy that Biobot can’t replace this information extra regularly. 

Regional information:

Backward revisions. Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Regional variant information, August 19:

EG.5 (the orange pie slice) nonetheless appears evenly distributed. Sadly, the Midwest information isn’t accessible, so we will’t infer something concerning the Midwest surge and any variant(s), come what may. 

Variants

From CDC, August 19:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). I’m not highlighting the BA.2’s as a result of the interactive model exhibits that these BA.2’s been hanging round at a low stage for months.

From CDC, August 5:

Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems to be like we’ve got a “tag group,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 all the way down to measurement. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 12:

Lambert right here: Enhance is much more distinct. (The black line is “mixed”, however it’s straightforward to see that Covid, the crimson line, is driving the whole lot.)

NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading. However, right here’s bellwether New York Metropolis, August 17:

Could possibly be worse, and probably will likely be. However how a lot worse?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, August 14:

-0.7%. A pause right here, too? Apparently, individuals are citing to this, too, in addition to Biobot. Vertical-ish, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Apparently, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

From CDC, July 31:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” information.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 9:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their methodology: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Complete: 1,172,433 – 1,172,148 = 285 (285 * 365 = 104,025 deaths per 12 months, at present’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they will discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, August 18:

Lambert right here:  Again to virtually dailiy. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran eternally with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no person was actually it, so I acquired rid it. )

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at present.

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Tech: Enshittification: It’s the circle of life!

Streaming is Stage 3 enshittification. Doctorow:

Right here is how platforms die: first, they’re good to their customers; then they abuse their customers to make issues higher for his or her enterprise clients; lastly, they abuse these enterprise clients to claw again all the worth for themselves. Then, they die.

In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 44 Worry (earlier shut: 56 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 62 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 18 at 1:50 PM ET. Mr. Market is beginning to chew his fingers.

The Gallery

Jogs my memory of woods within the Midwest in the summertime:

And into the woods:

The 420

“Marijuana and hallucinogen use, binge consuming hit historic highs” [The Hill]. “Almost half of adults ages 19 to 30 reported past-year utilization of marijuana, at 44 p.c — additionally the very best stage ever reported, up from 35 p.c in 2017 and 28 p.c in 2012. That very same age group reported record-high each day marijuana utilization — 11 p.c in 2022, up from 8 p.c in 2017 and 6 p.c in 2012. Hallucinogen use amongst adults ages 35-50 reached traditionally excessive ranges, with 4 p.c reporting past-year use in 2022, up from 2 p.c in 2021 and no larger than 1 p.c 5 or 10 years prior. Amongst adults ages 19-30, 8 p.c reported past-year utilization, up from 5 and 10 years prior. Total alcohol use tendencies have been progressively rising for adults ages 35-50, however binge consuming reached its highest reported ranges at 29 p.c in 2022, up from 26 p.c in 2021, 25 p.c in 2017 and 23 p.c in 2012. Previous-year consuming elevated barely over the previous 10 years, from 83 p.c in 2012 to 85 p.c in 2022.” • “That’s rather a lot,” as Dima would say.

Information of the Wired

“The traditional know-how holding area missions alive” [BBC]. “Launched virtually 46 years in the past in 1977, the dual Voyager probes proceed to ship again information from past the Photo voltaic System. I checked with Nasa, which has assured me that the spacecraft are nonetheless being managed from the identical beige cubicle in an annex of its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) that I visited in 2017, marked with a selfmade cardboard signal studying: ‘Mission vital {hardware} – PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH’.” • Not all heroes put on capes.

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Upstater:

Upstater writes: “In 2019, we visited the New York State / USDA / Cornell College Agricultural experimental station’s annual open home in Geneva NY. It has the biggest assortment of chilly local weather grapes within the US. Some are desk grapes (e.g. Harmony), some hardier Vinifera varieties and hybrids.”

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